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Hola a todos. ¿Podrían ayudarme con estos términos?

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Here is where I run into difficulties. How does this list add up to a net pickup of 34 to 40 seats? Let us assume (1) that each category is -- to some degree -- vulnerable (i.e. that the two unmentioned categories are "Safe Republican" and "Safe Democrat"), (2) that all seats not mentioned here are in their parties' respective "Safe" categories, (3) that each category is equidistant from those immediately preceding and following it (i.e. each category is separated from the two closest by +12.5% or -12.5%), and (4) that the titles mean the same for one party as they do for the other (e.g. the Democrats have as good a chance in "Lean Democrat" as the Republicans do in "Lean Republican").

I think these are all fair assumptions. In fact, I am willing to bet that the average reader would implicitly make these assumptions upon a viewing of Rothenberg's list.

With these assumptions, that would mean that any given race in a given category would have the following probability of Democratic victory:

"Safe Democrat:" 100%
"Democrat Favored:" 87.5%
"Lean Democratic:" 75%
"Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic:" 62.5%
"Pure Toss-Up:" 50%
"Toss-Up/Tilt Republican:" 37.5%
"Lean Republican:" 25%
"Republican Favored:" 12.5%
"Safe Republican:" 0%


*Tampoco entiendo lo de ''Lean Republican''.

Gracias de antemano.

Saludos cordiales.

Indiana.